Astoria, Oregon Weather Conditions

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Current Conditions

  • 55°
  • Light Rain
  • Wind: SSW 15 mph
  • Humidity: 94%
  • Visibility: 5.0 miles
  • Dew Point: 54°
  • Pressure: 29.56 in. 0

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Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

  • Saturday
  • Rain
  • High: 59 °
  • Low: 50 °
  • Rain
  • Sunday
  • Rain
  • High: 59 °
  • Low: 45 °
  • Rain
  • Monday
  • Chance of Rain
  • High: 55 °
  • Low: 50 °
  • Chance of Rain
  • Tuesday
  • Chance of Rain
  • High: 57 °
  • Low: 46 °
  • Chance of Rain
  • Wednesday
  • Chance of Rain
  • High: 55 °
  • Low: 41 °
  • Chance of Rain

Forecast for Astoria, Oregon

Updated: 7:00 AM PST on December 20, 2014

High surf advisory in effect until 7 PM PST this evening...
  • Saturday

    Overcast with rain. High of 59F. Windy. Winds from the South at 30 to 35 mph with gusts to 45 mph. Chance of rain 100% with rainfall amounts near 1.2 in. possible.

  • Saturday Night

    Overcast with rain. Low of 50F. Windy. Winds from the SW at 20 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 100% with rainfall amounts near 1.1 in. possible.

  • Sunday

    Overcast with rain. High of 59F. Breezy. Winds from the West at 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 100% with rainfall amounts near 0.9 in. possible.

  • Sunday Night

    Overcast with rain. Fog overnight. Low of 45F. Winds from the WNW at 5 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 80% with rainfall amounts near 0.4 in. possible.

  • Monday

    Overcast with a chance of rain. High of 55F. Winds less than 5 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

  • Monday Night

    Overcast in the evening, then mostly cloudy. Low of 50F. Winds from the SE at 5 to 15 mph.

  • Tuesday

    Overcast with a chance of rain. High of 57F. Winds from the South at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

  • Tuesday Night

    Overcast with a chance of rain. Fog overnight. Low of 46F. Winds from the SSW at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70% with rainfall amounts near 0.5 in. possible.

  • Wednesday

    Overcast with a chance of rain. High of 55F. Winds from the NW at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70% with rainfall amounts near 0.5 in. possible.

  • Wednesday Night

    Partly cloudy with a chance of rain. Low of 41F. Winds from the NW at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

  • Thursday

    Partly cloudy. High of 52F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Thursday Night

    Partly cloudy. Fog overnight. Low of 39F. Winds from the NE at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Friday

    Partly cloudy. High of 48F. Winds from the NE at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Friday Night

    Partly cloudy. Low of 37F. Winds from the NE at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Saturday

    Partly cloudy with a chance of rain. High of 52F. Winds from the SW at 5 to 10 mph shifting to the WNW in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40%.

  • Saturday Night

    Partly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm. Low of 41F. Winds from the NNE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

  • Sunday

    Clear. High of 48F. Winds from the NE at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Sunday Night

    Clear. Low of 34F with a windchill as low as 28F. Winds from the ENE at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Monday

    Clear. High of 45F. Winds from the ENE at 5 to 15 mph.

  • Monday Night

    Clear. Low of 32F with a windchill as low as 25F. Winds from the ENE at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Tuesday

    Clear. High of 45F. Winds from the East at 10 to 15 mph.

  • Tuesday Night

    Clear. Low of 32F. Winds from the East at 5 to 10 mph.

Severe Weather Alert Descriptions

 Flood Warning  Statement as of 10:14 am PST on December 20, 2014


The National Weather Service in Portland has issued a

* Flood Warning for
the Trask river near Tillamook.
* From Sunday morning to late Sunday night... or until the warning is
cancelled.
* At 9 am Saturday the stage was... 8.6 feet / 1500 cfs.
* Flood stage is 16.5 feet and flood flow is 12100 cfs.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast... this river is forecast to rise above flood stage around
9 am Sunday and is expected to crest at 17.0 ft around 4 PM Sunday.
* Impact... above 16.5 ft, expect some minor flooding along the lower
Trask river. Dairy farms, buildings, and a few residences adjacent
to the Trask in the vicinity of Hwy 101 may be threatened.


Lat... Lon 4543 12372 4542 12381 4545 12388 4546 12388 4544 12371




1014 am PST Sat Dec 20 2014

The National Weather Service in Portland has issued a

* Flood Warning for
the Wilson river near Tillamook.
* From late tonight to Monday morning... or until the warning is
cancelled.
* At 9 am Saturday the stage was... 6.8 feet / 3850 cfs.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet and flood flow is 16200 cfs.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast... this river is forecast to rise above flood stage around
2 am Sunday and is expected to crest at 14.4 ft around 4 PM Sunday.
* Impact... above 14 ft, widespread lowland and Dairy land flooding
begins. Sloughs north of the city, mainly Dougherty, begin to
overflow. Minor flooding begins in the business district north of
Tillamook and along Hwy 101, particularly during high tide.


Lat... Lon 4546 12385 4549 12385 4548 12373 4547 12372 4546 12375




1014 am PST Sat Dec 20 2014

The National Weather Service in Portland has issued a

* Flood Warning for
the Nehalem river near Foss.
* From late tonight to Monday evening... or until the warning is
cancelled.
* At 9 am Saturday the stage was... 8.0 feet / 6150 cfs.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet and flood flow is 25900 cfs.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast... this river is forecast to rise above flood stage around
4 am Sunday and is expected to crest at 18.1 ft around 4 PM Sunday.
* Impact... above 18 ft, expect widespread flooding of low lying farm
land and structures downstream of the Foss gauging station to
Nehalem. Street flooding in the town of Nehalem begins at this
point, usually during the high tide.


Lat... Lon 4568 12389 4573 12391 4574 12387 4573 12376 4570 12375





 Areal Flood Advisory, High Surf Advisory, Areal Flood Watch  Statement as of 12:36 PM PST on December 20, 2014


The National Weather Service in Portland has issued a

* Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory for...
western Yamhill County in northwestern Oregon...
Clatsop County in northwestern Oregon...
Tillamook County in northwestern Oregon...
Pacific County in southwestern Washington...
Wahkiakum County in southwestern Washington...

* until 330 PM PST

* at 1230 PM PST... emergency management and law enforcement have
reported issues with low lying roads flooding in northwest Oregon
and southwest Washington due to 1 to 3 inches of rain this
morning.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Astoria... seaside... Warrenton... Cannon Beach... Long Beach...
Garibaldi... Manzanita... Grays River... Jewell... Pacific City...
Frances... Tillamook... Ocean Park... Raymond... South Bend... Rockaway
Beach... Ilwaco... Netarts... Camp rilea and Skamokawa.

This includes the following highways in Washington...
U. S. Highway 101 between mile markers 5 and 38... and between mile
markers 52 and 66.
State Route 4 between mile markers 1 and 34.
State Route 6 between mile markers 1 and 27.

This includes the following highways in Oregon...
U.S. Highway 26 west of Portland between mile markers 1 and 30.
U.S. Highway 30 west of Portland between mile markers 74 and 93.
U.S. Highway 101 between mile markers 6 and 93.
State Highway 6 between mile markers 1 and 28.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small
creeks and streams... as well as farm and country roads. Do not
attempt to travel across flooded roads. Find alternate routes.

Landslides and debris flows are possible during this flood event.
People... structures and roads located below steep slopes... in canyons
and near the mouths of canyons may be at serious risk from rapidly
moving landslides.


Lat... Lon 4679 12337 4620 12323 4617 12342 4514 12346
      4513 12398 4623 12403 4615 12382 4618 12386
      4619 12332 4626 12349 4626 12348 4627 12408
      4664 12407 4665 12406 4637 12401 4670 12383
      4679 12410


Neuman


1216 PM PST Sat Dec 20 2014

The National Weather Service in Portland has issued a

* Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory for...
southwestern Yamhill County in northwestern Oregon...
western Polk County in northwestern Oregon...
Lincoln County in western Oregon...
western Benton County in western Oregon...
southwestern Tillamook County in northwestern Oregon...
northwestern Lane County in western Oregon...

* until 315 PM PST

* at 1211 PM PST... emergency management and law enforcement have
reported flooded roadways and small stream flooding along the
central Oregon coast. 2 to 3 inches of rain have fallen in the
last 12 hours and allowed water to pool in low lying areas.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Newport... Florence... Lincoln City... Waldport... Depoe Bay... Dunes
City... Otter Rock... Triangle Lake... Mapleton... Lincoln Beach...
Eddyville... Neskowin... Valsetz... Tidewater... Alsea... Blodgett...
Grand Ronde... Toledo... Willamina and Siletz.


This includes the following highways in Oregon...
U.S. Highway 20 west of Corvallis between mile markers 1 and 40.
U.S. Highway 101 between mile markers 96 and 121... between mile
markers 123 and 140... near mile marker 156... and between mile markers
182 and 198.
State Highway 18 between mile markers 1 and 28.
State Highway 22 from Valley Junction to Salem near mile marker 1.
State Highway 126 west of Eugene between mile markers 1 and 34.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small
creeks and streams... as well as farm and country roads. Do not
attempt to travel across flooded roads. Find alternate routes.

Landslides and debris flows are possible during this flood event.
People... structures and roads located below steep slopes... in canyons
and near the mouths of canyons may be at serious risk from rapidly
moving landslides.


Lat... Lon 4462 12404 4460 12401 4463 12401 4463 12406
      4468 12408 4483 12407 4491 12401 4490 12403
      4508 12401 4512 12398 4512 12346 4387 12357
      4393 12366 4394 12383 4390 12392 4386 12393
      4386 12415


Neuman



1043 am PST Sat Dec 20 2014

The National Weather Service in Portland has issued a

* Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory for...
western Tillamook County in northwestern Oregon...

* until 215 PM PST

* at 1032 am PST... emergency management officials have reported
standing water along low lying areas and roadways. One and a half
to three inches of rain have fallen in these areas this
morning... and more is expected. The heavy rainfall in combination
with tidal overflow from a high tidal cycle will creating flooding
issues through at least early this afternoon.

* Some locations that will experience flooding
include... Nehalem... Tillamook... and Pacific City.

This includes the following highways in Oregon... U.S. Highway 101.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause ponding of water in
urban areas... highways... streets and underpasses as well as other
poor drainage areas and low lying spots. Do not attempt to travel
across flooded roads. Find alternate routes. It takes only a few
inches of swiftly flowing water to carry vehicles away.

Do not drive your vehicle into areas where the water covers the
roadway. The water depth may be too great to allow your car to cross
safely. Move to higher ground.


Lat... Lon 4529 12394 4537 12397 4540 12393 4543 12395
      4541 12396 4549 12398 4551 12395 4549 12387
      4556 12389 4556 12394 4554 12395 4573 12394
      4574 12381 4513 12379 4513 12398 4517 12396
      4521 12399


Pyle


902 am PST Sat Dec 20 2014

... High surf advisory remains in effect until 7 PM PST this
evening for the South Washington coast and the north and central
Oregon coast...

A high surf advisory remains in effect until 7 PM PST this
evening.

* Seas and surf: seas will remain around 20 ft through today with
periods around 17 seconds. Waves will slowly subside to around
17 ft late this evening. Swell of this magnitude will produce
dangerous surf conditions.

* Impacts: exercise extreme caution along beaches. Unpredictable
waves may Surprise Beach goers and wash much farther up the
beach than the preceding waves over the previous 15 to 30
minutes. Please avoid area jetties today.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A high surf advisory means that high surf will affect beaches in
the advisory area... producing rip currents and localized beach
erosion.




Http://www.Weather.Gov/Portland


821 am PST Sat Dec 20 2014

... Flood Watch remains in effect from 4 PM PST this afternoon
through Monday afternoon for southwest Washington and northwest
Oregon...

The Flood Watch continues for southwest Washington and northwest
Oregon from 4 PM PST this afternoon through Monday afternoon.


A classic atmospheric river type precipitation event is setting up
over the Pacific northwest today... which will continue to impact
the region into early Monday. A very long fetch of moisture with
origins west to the South China Sea is feeding into this
system... bringing the potential for very large rainfall totals
across the region. A deep and moist westerly flow will develop
today and continue through Sunday. With the flow forecasted to
remain perpendicular to the Coast Range and Cascades for an
extended period of time... expect strong orographic enhancement to
lead to the highest rainfall totals over the mountains. The Coast
Range... foothills and Cascades are expected to see in the range of
6 to 12 inches of rain... with locally higher amounts possible.
Lower but still significant totals are expected for the lower
terrain. Projected rainfall along the coast is forecasted to be
around 4 to 8 inches. The interior lowlands should see 1 to 4
inches... with the highest amounts closer to the Cascade foothills.

Given the latest forecasted rainfall totals... it appears that
there is the strong potential for flooding over the weekend on
numerous rivers and tributaries draining the Coast Range and
Cascades. A few rivers may even reach major flood stage. The
Current River stage forecasts indicate that the faster responding
rivers could reach flood stage as early as tonight. There are also likely
to be impacts from Urban and Small Stream flooding and flooding
along low lying pasture land.

In addition to the flooding concerns... excessive rainfall has the
potential to create landslides... debris flows... and excessive runoff
in the vicinity of recent wildfire burn scars. Burn scars from two
large fires this Summer... the 36 pit fire in the Clackamas river
basin near Estacada and the deception complex near Oakridge... will
be particularly vulnerable.


Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts.

Landslides and debris flows are possible during this flood event.
People... structures and roads located below steep slopes... in
canyons and near the mouths of canyons may be at serious risk
from rapidly moving landslides.

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible
flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be
prepared to take action should flooding develop.

The next update for this watch will be issued by 10 PM Saturday
night.





 Local Storm Report 



12/20/2014 1008 am

Cloverdale, Tillamook County.

Heavy rain u0.00 inch, reported by County official.


            Emergency manager reported a landslide partially blocking
            Highway 101 near Cloverdale, or.



Personal Weather Stations

Personal Weather Stations [Add your weather station!]

Location: The Slope of South, Astoria, OR

Updated: 12:43 PM PST

Temperature: 54.7 °F Dew Point: 54 °F Humidity: 99% Wind: SSW at 11.9 mph Pressure: 29.37 in Hourly Precipitation: - Windchill: - Graphs

Location: South Slope, Astoria, OR

Updated: 12:47 PM PST

Temperature: 54.7 °F Dew Point: 41 °F Humidity: 60% Wind: South at 9.0 mph Pressure: 29.55 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: - Graphs

Location: West Slope, Astoria, OR

Updated: 12:46 PM PST

Temperature: 54.5 °F Dew Point: 54 °F Humidity: 100% Wind: SSW at 16.1 mph Pressure: 29.45 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.03 in Windchill: - Graphs

Location: River Point, Astoria, OR

Updated: 11:35 AM PST

Temperature: 56.3 °F Dew Point: 0 °F Humidity: 8% Wind: West at 5.0 mph Pressure: 29.54 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.14 in Windchill: - Graphs

Location: Knappa, Oregon, Astoria, OR

Updated: 12:46 PM PST

Temperature: 50.9 °F Dew Point: 47 °F Humidity: 85% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.54 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: - Graphs

Location: Necanicum Estuary, Seaside, OR

Updated: 12:46 PM PST

Temperature: 56.5 °F Dew Point: 48 °F Humidity: 72% Wind: SSW at 13.2 mph Pressure: 29.46 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: - Graphs

Location: Discovery Heights, Ilwaco, WA

Updated: 12:47 PM PST

Temperature: 55.0 °F Dew Point: 54 °F Humidity: 97% Wind: SW at 5.0 mph Pressure: 29.54 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: - Graphs

Location: Ocean Vista Dr, Seaside, OR

Updated: 12:46 PM PST

Temperature: 56.7 °F Dew Point: 56 °F Humidity: 96% Wind: WSW at 10.5 mph Pressure: 29.54 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.03 in Windchill: - Graphs

Location: 81st and Sandridge Rd, Long Beach, WA

Updated: 12:46 PM PST

Temperature: 55.5 °F Dew Point: 55 °F Humidity: 98% Wind: SSW at 15.4 mph Pressure: 29.53 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.02 in Windchill: - Graphs

Location: Long Beach, Long Beach, WA

Updated: 12:46 PM PST

Temperature: 55.2 °F Dew Point: 52 °F Humidity: 88% Wind: SSW at 16.1 mph Pressure: 29.57 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.01 in Windchill: - Graphs

Location: Sandridge 166th, Long Beach, WA

Updated: 12:45 PM PST

Temperature: 54.8 °F Dew Point: 55 °F Humidity: 100% Wind: SW at 5.0 mph Pressure: 29.61 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: - Graphs

Location: Cathlamet, Puget Island, WA

Updated: 12:45 PM PST

Temperature: 48.2 °F Dew Point: 47 °F Humidity: 95% Wind: ESE at 4.0 mph Pressure: 29.56 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 47 °F Graphs

Location: Cathlamet 98612, Cathlamet, WA

Updated: 12:38 PM PST

Temperature: 49.6 °F Dew Point: 48 °F Humidity: 96% Wind: NE at 3.2 mph Pressure: 29.44 in Hourly Precipitation: - Windchill: 49 °F Graphs

Location: Bayside Peninsula, Ocean Park, WA

Updated: 12:45 PM PST

Temperature: 57.7 °F Dew Point: 52 °F Humidity: 80% Wind: NNE at 1.0 mph Pressure: 29.21 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: - Graphs

Location: One mile south of Ocean Park, Ocean Park, WA

Updated: 12:45 PM PST

Temperature: 55.4 °F Dew Point: 55 °F Humidity: 97% Wind: SW at 4.0 mph Pressure: 29.54 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.04 in Windchill: - Graphs

Location: Long Beach Peninsula, Ocean Park, WA

Updated: 12:35 PM PST

Temperature: 55.7 °F Dew Point: 56 °F Humidity: 100% Wind: South at 3.0 mph Pressure: 29.55 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: - Graphs

Location: Beach, Ocean Park, WA

Updated: 12:45 PM PST

Temperature: 54.7 °F Dew Point: 52 °F Humidity: 89% Wind: ENE at 10.9 mph Pressure: 29.26 in Hourly Precipitation: - Windchill: - Graphs

MSN Maps of:

Temp: Dew Point: Humidity Wind Pressure Hr Precip -

NWS Forecaster Discussion




Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Portland or 
1004 am PST Sat Dec 20 2014 


Synopsis...mild and very wet weather has developed over southwest 
Washington and northwest Oregon and is expected to continue through 
the weekend as a strong westerly flow transports an atmospheric river 
or plume of anomalously high moisture into the area. The heaviest 
rain will be over the higher terrain...but all areas will see 
substantial rains. The heavy rain should ease Sunday night into 
Monday. There is the potential for some flooding late this weekend 
into early next week. Longer range model output is suggesting a 
colder air mass will settle over the Pacific northwest late next week 
with snow down into at least the Cascade foothills and Coast Range. 
&& 


Morning update...rainfall rates have picked up significantly this 
morning as a warm front streams copious amounts of sub-tropical 
moisture onshore. AMSU derived satellite imagery is showing a plume 
of precipitable water around 1.25+ inches feeding into the system. So 
far the heaviest rain has been along the Oregon coast and Coast 
Range...where in general one to two inches of rain have fallen so 
far. There is a pocket of even higher amounts up to 3 inches in the 
Wilson and nestucca river basins east of Tillamook. Did not make too 
many changes to the predicted rainfall totals this morning as things 
generally seem to be on track. The main forecast update was to decrease 
the quantitative precipitation forecast for the Willamette Valley tonight and sun. After the warm 
front moves through this afternoon...we will lose some of the forcing 
we are currently receiving from isentropic lift with the warm front. 
The winds will also switch from southwesterly to westerly. With the 
850 mb westerly wind speeds expected to be around 40 to 50 knots 
overnight through much of sun...there will be very strong lift along 
the Coast Range and downward motion on the Lee side...which should 
contribute to a significant rain shadow effect. The latest total quantitative precipitation forecast 
for the valley has been decreased to around 1 to 4 inches...with the 
higher totals being on the east side of the valley closer to the 
Cascade foothills. 


Will hang on the Winter Weather Advisory for the South Washington 
Cascades into the early afternoon. The colder air over the Cascades 
has been stubborn to leave...and current temperatures are still right 
around freezing as low as 4000 to 4500 feet according to several of the 
S Washington Cascade snotels. With radar showing fairly heavy precipitation now over 
the Cascades...locations the higher Cascade passes may pick up 
several additional inches of snowfall over the next few hours. 
However...with the warm front moving through the region 
today...expect temperatures to rise above freezing sooner rather than 
later...with snow levels remaining well above the Cascade passes 
through the remainder of the atmospheric river event. Pyle 


Also...individuals planning to be along the coast today and tomorrow 
should continue to closely monitor the forecast. The large...long 
period seas will bring dangerous conditions to the surf zone. Anyone 
on beaches should exercise extreme caution and remain alert as large 
waves may wash ashore with little warning. Large waves may also 
crash over jetties and sweep away unsuspecting beachgoers and storm 
watchers. Cullen 


Previous discussion issued 258 am Sat Dec 20... 


Short term...our well advertised atmospheric river event has begun 
over the Pacific northwest early this morning...with overrunning rain 
having spread across our entire forecast area ahead of a strong warm 
front. The models show a couple of warm frontal waves moving through 
today that will keep today very wet...with a decent surface trough 
moving by just to our north middle day that will produce some rather 
strong winds along the coast. We may get close to high wind values at 
the beaches and headlands...but will stay with the current forecast 
of just below high wind criteria. 


The main story though will be the rain. Once the warm front moves 
through later today...several more surges of rain follow tonight into 
Sunday in the continued strong westerly flow aloft. The lower level 
flow will turn more westerly as well tonight and Sunday...and we may 
start to see a bit of rain shadowing to the Lee of the Coast Range. 
But the coast and higher terrain will continued to hit hard by the 
rain with significant orographic enhancement. 


As a result...the current Flood Watch looks good as we should start 
to see significant rises on many area rivers by tonight and Sunday. 
The biggest question in my mind right now is if there will be any let 
up or breaks in the heavy rain after the warm front moves through 
later today and between any of the moisture surges coming in tonight 
and Sunday. This will ultimately control how many rivers flood and 
how high they get. Nevertheless...the Hydro section of this 
discussion will not be updated this morning as it still looks 
reasonable. 


The strong westerly flow starts to buckle late Sunday as an upper 
ridge starts to develop in the northeast Pacific...which continues to 
amplify Sunday night and Monday. The main effect in our area is that 
it will the precipitation and moisture coming into the Pacific 
northwest will decrease as the onshore flow abates...though it will 
take some time for any rivers that flood to react and recede. 


Will continue the Snow Advisory for snow this morning for the South 
Washington Cascades ahead of the incoming warm front. Snow levels 
should rise and the snow turn to mostly rain this afternoon. The 
Oregon Cascades will see a few inches of snow this morning as well. 
Tolleson 
&& 


Long term...no changes. Previous discussion follows... 
Monday night through Friday...an upper level ridge will amplify over 
the region late Monday into Tuesday. Extended models agree on a weak 
shortwave attempting to flatten the ridge Tuesday morning as an upper 
level trough begins to deepen in the Gulf of Alaska. Cloudy and rainy 
conditions will linger into the middle of next week as this dirty 
ridge remains over the area. The next more significant system arrives 
late Wednesday afternoon as the upper level trough axis becomes more 
negatively tilted and starts to shift inland. This Marks the next 
best shot for the Cascades to finally see some snow 
accumulations...as snow levels drop to 2000 to 2500 feet through 
Christmas day. Holiday travelers headed over the Cascade passes will 
certainly need to monitor the forecast. Colder north flow will follow 
and allow temperatures to cool well below normal as conditions dry 
out next Friday. /27 
&& 


Hydrology...a classic atmospheric river type precipitation event is 
underway over the region today...which will continue to impact 
the region into early Monday. A very long fetch of moisture with 
origins west to the South China Sea is feeding into this 
system...bringing the potential for very large rainfall totals 
across the region. A deep and moist westerly flow will develop 
today and continue through Sunday. With the flow forecasted to 
remain perpendicular to the Coast Range and Cascades for an 
extended period of time...expect strong orographic enhancement to 
lead to the highest rainfall totals over the mountains. The Coast 
Range...foothills and Cascades are expected to see in the range of 
6 to 12 inches of rain...with locally higher amounts possible. 
Lower but still significant totals are expected for the lower 
terrain. Projected rainfall along the coast is forecasted to be 
around 4 to 8 inches. The interior lowlands should see 1 to 4 
inches...with the highest amounts closer to the Cascade foothills. 


Given the latest forecasted rainfall totals...it appears that 
there is the strong potential for flooding over the weekend on 
numerous rivers and tributaries draining the Coast Range and 
Cascades. A few rivers may even reach major flood stage. The 
Current River stage forecasts indicate that the faster responding 
rivers could reach flood stage as early as tonight. There are also 
likely to be impacts from Urban and Small Stream flooding and 
flooding along low lying pasture land. 


There is also potential for some tidally influence flooding concerns 
over the next couple of days along the coast. High tide this 
afternoon near Toke Point will likely touch just above 11 feet due to a 
tidal anomaly around 1.5 feet. This may be sufficient to provide some 
minor tidal overflow issues for the South Washington coast. 
However...concern remains greater for high tide on Sunday afternoon 
for both the Oregon and South Washington coasts given that abundant 
rainfall today and tonight will likely push flows on coastal rivers 
significantly higher. Several coastal rivers will be approaching or 
exceeding flood stage by midday Sunday...so suspect that tidal 
overflow concerns may encompass many coastal spots. Rivers likely 
remain high into Monday...so there may be impacts again during high 
tides. Any tidal overflow issues that materialize will likely be most 
prevalent between 9 am and 3 PM on Sunday and Monday. 


In addition to the flooding concerns...excessive rainfall has the 
potential to create landslides...debris flows...and excessive runoff 
in the vicinity of recent wildfire burn scars. Burn scars from two 
large fires this Summer...the 36 pit fire in the Clackamas river 
basin near Estacada and the deception complex near Oakridge...will 
be particularly vulnerable. 


Please continue to follow the latest forecasts. River forecasts are 
available on our web Page at: 
http://water.Weather.Gov/ahps2/index.Php?Wfo=pqr (all lower case). 
Pyle/Cullen 


&& 


Aviation...mix of flight conditions across the region...with 
MVFR/VFR across the interior and IFR/MVFR at the coast. Trend of 
increasingly MVFR over most of the area will continue with 
approaching frontal boundary and continued rain...with pockets of 
IFR likely at times along the coast and Coast Range. Expect higher 
terrain to be obscured in clouds and precipitation through the day. Gusty 
S winds along the coast to 35-45 knots through this evening...then 
easing tonight. 


Kpdx and approaches...MVFR ceilings prevail this evening...likely 
remaining near 2000 feet. Visible will also become restricted...down to 
3-4 sm by 19z through this evening. May see brief periods of IFR 
with heavier rain continuing this afternoon through the overnight. 
With increasing west-SW flow aloft this afternoon...some potential 
for low level wind shear 21z-03z this evening. Cullen 


&& 


Marine...southerly gales on the waters this morning...with 
another burst of stronger gale gusts this afternoon. Cannot rule 
out a few isolated low end storm force gusts...particularly near 
the coast...but think these will be local and infrequent at most. 
Winds will ease gradually into this evening...with solid small 
craft level winds over the waters by midnight. Winds continue to 
ease through day sun...with winds generally 15 knots or less for late 
Sun night through Wednesday...trending to west or northwest. 


Seas remain around 19 to 21 feet over the waters this morning and 
should stay in the range through much of the day...perhaps running 
slightly higher over the far outer waters. Seas will then subside 
to near 15 feet by early Sunday...but remain above 10 feet through at 
least the first half of the week. Cullen 




&& 


Pqr watches/warnings/advisories... 
or...Flood Watch from 4 PM PST this afternoon through Monday 
afternoon for northwest Oregon. 


High surf advisory until 7 PM PST this evening for central 
Oregon coast-north Oregon coast. 


Washington...Flood Watch from 4 PM PST this afternoon through Monday 
afternoon for southwest Washington. 


High surf advisory until 7 PM PST this evening for South 
Washington coast. 


Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM PST this afternoon for South 
Washington Cascades. 


Pz...Gale Warning until midnight PST tonight for coastal waters from 
Cape Shoalwater Washington to Florence or out 60 nm. 


Small Craft Advisory for rough Columbia River bar until 6 PM 
PST Sunday. 


&& 


$$ 


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This discussion is for northwest Oregon and southwest Washington 
from the Cascade crest to 60 nautical miles offshore. The area is 
commonly referred to as the forecast area. 






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