Updated: 8:00 PM MST on December 20, 2014
Overcast with rain. High of 59F. Windy. Winds from the SSW at 20 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph. Chance of rain 100% with rainfall amounts near 1.5 in. possible.
Overcast with rain. Low of 52F. Breezy. Winds from the SW at 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 100% with rainfall amounts near 1.9 in. possible.
Overcast with rain. Fog early. High of 55F. Breezy. Winds from the WSW at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 100% with rainfall amounts near 0.6 in. possible.
Overcast with rain. Low of 46F. Winds from the West at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70% with rainfall amounts near 0.4 in. possible.
Overcast with a chance of rain. High of 55F. Winds less than 5 mph. Chance of rain 30%.
Partly cloudy with a chance of rain. Low of 46F. Winds from the SSE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50%.
Partly cloudy with rain in the morning, then overcast with rain. High of 59F. Winds less than 5 mph. Chance of rain 60%.
Overcast with a chance of rain after midnight. Low of 48F. Winds from the South at 10 to 15 mph shifting to the NW after midnight. Chance of rain 50% with rainfall amounts near 0.3 in. possible.
Overcast with a chance of rain. Fog early. High of 55F. Winds from the NW at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70% with rainfall amounts near 0.3 in. possible.
Overcast. Low of 37F. Winds from the WNW at 5 to 15 mph.
Overcast with a chance of rain in the afternoon. High of 52F. Winds from the WNW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20%.
Partly cloudy. Fog overnight. Low of 34F. Winds less than 5 mph.
Partly cloudy. Fog early. High of 50F. Winds less than 5 mph.
Partly cloudy. Low of 39F. Winds less than 5 mph.
Partly cloudy with a chance of rain. High of 52F. Winds from the WNW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20%.
Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain. Low of 39F. Winds from the WSW at 5 to 10 mph shifting to the NW after midnight. Chance of rain 50%.
Partly cloudy with a chance of rain. High of 48F. Winds from the NE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20%.
Partly cloudy with a chance of rain. Low of 36F. Winds from the ENE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20%.
Partly cloudy. High of 45F. Winds from the ENE at 10 to 15 mph.
Partly cloudy. Low of 30F with a windchill as low as 23F. Winds from the ENE at 10 to 15 mph.
Clear. High of 45F. Winds from the ENE at 10 to 15 mph.
Clear. Low of 30F with a windchill as low as 23F. Winds from the East at 5 to 10 mph.
Clear. High of 45F. Winds from the ENE at 5 to 10 mph.
523 PM PST Sat Dec 20 2014
The Flood Warning continues for
the Trask river near Tillamook.
* From late tonight to Sunday afternoon or until the warning is
* At 4 PM Saturday the stage was... 9.9 feet / 2600 cfs.
* Flood stage is 16.5 feet and flood flow is 12100 cfs.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast... this river will rise above flood stage around 2 am
Sunday and is expected to crest near 18.5 ft around 4 am Sunday.
* Impact... above 16.5 ft, expect some minor flooding along the lower
Trask river. Dairy farms, buildings, and a few residences adjacent
to the Trask in the vicinity of Hwy 101 may be threatened.
Lat... Lon 4543 12372 4542 12381 4545 12388 4546 12388 4544 12371
... Flood Watch remains in effect from 4 PM PST this afternoon
through Monday afternoon for southwest Washington and northwest
The Flood Watch continues for southwest Washington and northwest
Oregon from 4 PM PST this afternoon through Monday afternoon.
A classic atmospheric river type precipitation event is setting up
over the Pacific northwest today... which will continue to impact
the region into early Monday. A very long fetch of moisture with
origins west to the South China Sea is feeding into this
system... bringing the potential for very large rainfall totals
across the region. A deep and moist westerly flow will develop
today and continue through Sunday. With the flow forecasted to
remain perpendicular to the Coast Range and Cascades for an
extended period of time... expect strong orographic enhancement to
lead to the highest rainfall totals over the mountains. The Coast
Range... foothills and Cascades are expected to see in the range of
6 to 12 inches of rain... with locally higher amounts possible.
Lower but still significant totals are expected for the lower
terrain. Projected rainfall along the coast is forecasted to be
around 4 to 8 inches. The interior lowlands should see 1 to 4
inches... with the highest amounts closer to the Cascade foothills.
Given the latest forecasted rainfall totals... it appears that
there is the strong potential for flooding over the weekend on
numerous rivers and tributaries draining the Coast Range and
Cascades. A few rivers may even reach major flood stage. The
Current River stage forecasts indicate that the faster responding
rivers could reach flood stage as early as tonight. There are also likely
to be impacts from Urban and Small Stream flooding and flooding
along low lying pasture land.
In addition to the flooding concerns... excessive rainfall has the
potential to create landslides... debris flows... and excessive runoff
in the vicinity of recent wildfire burn scars. Burn scars from two
large fires this Summer... the 36 pit fire in the Clackamas river
basin near Estacada and the deception complex near Oakridge... will
be particularly vulnerable.
A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
Landslides and debris flows are possible during this flood event.
People... structures and roads located below steep slopes... in
canyons and near the mouths of canyons may be at serious risk
from rapidly moving landslides.
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible
flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be
prepared to take action should flooding develop.
The next update for this watch will be issued by 10 PM Saturday
... Latest and heaviest 24 hour rainfall reports by region...
Location amount time/date lat/Lon
... South Washington coast...
1 N Klipsan Beach (36 ft) 1.79 in 0438 PM 12/20 46.48n/124.05w
Long Beach 1.70 in 0418 PM 12/20 46.35n/124.05w
1 ENE Long Beach (6 ft) 1.67 in 0436 PM 12/20 46.36n/124.03w
... North Oregon coast...
Tillamook (11 ft) 4.01 in 0412 PM 12/20 45.46n/123.80w
Tillamook Airport (36 ft) 3.41 in 0355 PM 12/20 45.42n/123.82w
Wilson r at Tillamook (10 ft 2.80 in 0400 PM 12/20 45.48n/123.81w
W f Satsop river (300 ft) 2.44 in 0430 PM 12/20 46.18n/123.56w
Pacific City (27 ft) 2.40 in 0438 PM 12/20 45.20n/123.97w
3 SW Sandlake (13 ft) 2.39 in 0428 PM 12/20 45.26n/123.95w
Astoria Airport (9 ft) 2.35 in 0355 PM 12/20 46.16n/123.88w
2 E Oceanside (1420 ft) 2.24 in 0437 PM 12/20 45.47n/123.92w
1 WSW Astoria (240 ft) 1.98 in 0400 PM 12/20 46.18n/123.84w
Knappa (104 ft) 1.71 in 0429 PM 12/20 46.17n/123.58w
1 ESE Pacific City (252 ft) 1.68 in 0438 PM 12/20 45.18n/123.93w
Oceanside (21 ft) 1.64 in 0433 PM 12/20 45.46n/123.97w
Cannon Beach (22 ft) 1.59 in 0430 PM 12/20 45.89n/123.96w
... Central Oregon coast...
1 NW Yachats (32 ft) 3.30 in 0439 PM 12/20 44.32n/124.11w
1 se Florence (45 ft) 3.18 in 0432 PM 12/20 43.98n/124.09w
2 NNE Yachats (81 ft) 2.77 in 0438 PM 12/20 44.34n/124.09w
1 NNE Lincoln Beach (72 ft) 2.70 in 0433 PM 12/20 44.87n/124.04w
dunes (120 ft) 2.65 in 0404 PM 12/20 43.96n/124.12w
1 S Otter Rock (141 ft) 2.32 in 0440 PM 12/20 44.72n/124.06w
Newport Muni ap 2.30 in 0355 PM 12/20 44.58n/124.05w
Newport (127 ft) 2.29 in 0438 PM 12/20 44.64n/124.06w
2 N Lincoln City (88 ft) 2.18 in 0438 PM 12/20 45.01n/124.01w
Waldport (164 ft) 1.80 in 0432 PM 12/20 44.42n/124.07w
... Willapa Hills...
Abernathy mtn (2000 ft) 2.72 in 0401 PM 12/20 46.35n/123.10w
Rock Creek (1445 ft) 2.46 in 0430 PM 12/20 46.53n/123.40w
Huckleberry Ridge (2424 ft) 2.39 in 0411 PM 12/20 46.50n/123.38w
Brooklyn (1036 ft) 1.80 in 0430 PM 12/20 46.73n/123.55w
Frances (231 ft) 1.40 in 0230 PM 12/20 46.54n/123.50w
... Coast Range of northwest Oregon...
Tillamook 8 ENE (71 ft) 5.03 in 0430 PM 12/20 45.48n/123.72w
Lees Camp (654 ft) 5.00 in 0400 PM 12/20 45.59n/123.52w
4 E Hebo (3160 ft) 4.93 in 0439 PM 12/20 45.21n/123.75w
4 ESE Hebo (2220 ft) 4.82 in 0410 PM 12/20 45.21n/123.77w
Rye Mountain (2000 ft) 4.65 in 0414 PM 12/20 45.22n/123.53w
South Fork (2256 ft) 4.11 in 0412 PM 12/20 45.60n/123.48w
Nehalem river nr Foss (40 ft 3.46 in 0400 PM 12/20 45.70n/123.75w
1 WNW Jewell (569 ft) 3.30 in 0400 PM 12/20 45.94n/123.53w
Tidewater (2035 ft) 3.06 in 0414 PM 12/20 46.01n/123.56w
Miller (1030 ft) 1.75 in 0412 PM 12/20 46.02n/123.27w
Nehalem river nr Vernonia 1.23 in 0415 PM 12/20 45.81n/123.28w
... Central Coast Range of western Oregon...
2 NNW Mapleton (41 ft) 3.80 in 0230 PM 12/20 44.06n/123.88w
Cannibal Mountain (1939 ft) 3.53 in 0403 PM 12/20 44.35n/123.89w
Summit (746 ft) 3.10 in 0400 PM 12/20 44.63n/123.58w
grande ronde (395 ft) 2.90 in 0400 PM 12/20 45.05n/123.62w
Village Creek (1565 ft) 2.72 in 0353 PM 12/20 44.25n/123.47w
Wilkinson Ridge (1346 ft) 2.37 in 0357 PM 12/20 44.33n/123.72w
High Point (1935 ft) 1.97 in 0353 PM 12/20 43.91n/123.40w
... Lower Columbia and I - 5 corridor in Cowlitz County...
Castle Rock (212 ft) 1.42 in 0409 PM 12/20 46.27n/122.89w
2 WNW Longview (22 ft) 1.02 in 0440 PM 12/20 46.15n/122.98w
Kelso-longview Airport 0.98 in 0355 PM 12/20 46.12n/122.89w
1 SSW Woodland (35 ft) 0.95 in 0433 PM 12/20 45.90n/122.75w
Saint Helens (79 ft) 0.85 in 0439 PM 12/20 45.85n/122.82w
... Greater Vancouver area...
Larch Mountain (1149 ft) 1.76 in 0409 PM 12/20 45.72n/122.35w
1 ESE Heisson (534 ft) 1.12 in 0424 PM 12/20 45.81n/122.46w
Battle Ground (346 ft) 1.09 in 0438 PM 12/20 45.79n/122.54w
1 NE Lacamas Lake (387 ft) 1.08 in 0440 PM 12/20 45.62n/122.41w
1 se Orchards (254 ft) 1.04 in 0434 PM 12/20 45.65n/122.53w
Lacamas Lake (331 ft) 1.02 in 0426 PM 12/20 45.61n/122.43w
1 NNW Lacamas Lake (246 ft) 1.01 in 0436 PM 12/20 45.62n/122.44w
... Greater Portland Metro area...
scoggins crk blo Henry hagg 2.27 in 0400 PM 12/20 45.47n/123.20w
4 WSW Scappoose (1430 ft) 2.10 in 0345 PM 12/20 45.71n/122.96w
Tualatin r nr Gaston (170 ft 1.93 in 0415 PM 12/20 45.44n/123.17w
1 NW Forest Grove (200 ft) 1.92 in 0430 PM 12/20 45.54n/123.13w
2 WNW Forest Grove (262 ft) 1.64 in 0428 PM 12/20 45.53n/123.14w
Tualatin (241 ft) 1.52 in 0440 PM 12/20 45.37n/122.76w
Scappoose Industrial Airpark 1.45 in 0353 PM 12/20 45.77n/122.86w
4 WNW Farmington (482 ft) 1.41 in 0440 PM 12/20 45.47n/123.02w
Sherwood (176 ft) 1.36 in 0428 PM 12/20 45.35n/122.84w
Cornelius (170 ft) 1.29 in 0347 PM 12/20 45.51n/123.06w
1 NW West Linn (649 ft) 1.28 in 0438 PM 12/20 45.38n/122.66w
Tigard (220 ft) 1.26 in 0440 PM 12/20 45.41n/122.77w
King City (175 ft) 1.20 in 0433 PM 12/20 45.40n/122.80w
... Central Willamette Valley...
6 SW Pike (755 ft) 4.00 in 0430 PM 12/20 45.31n/123.35w
Falls City (419 ft) 3.80 in 0345 PM 12/20 44.88n/123.46w
Rockhouse 1 (1797 ft) 3.14 in 0412 PM 12/20 44.92n/123.47w
4 SSW Dallas (459 ft) 2.83 in 0437 PM 12/20 44.86n/123.34w
1 WSW Dallas (436 ft) 2.40 in 0441 PM 12/20 44.92n/123.33w
1 NW Rickreall (205 ft) 2.11 in 0346 PM 12/20 44.95n/123.25w
3 WSW Scholls (1348 ft) 2.02 in 0428 PM 12/20 45.36n/123.01w
1 ESE Dallas (282 ft) 1.86 in 0440 PM 12/20 44.92n/123.30w
1 W Newberg (177 ft) 1.72 in 0440 PM 12/20 45.30n/122.99w
2 ENE Yamhill (666 ft) 1.64 in 0432 PM 12/20 45.35n/123.14w
MC Minnville Municipal airpo 1.47 in 0353 PM 12/20 45.19n/123.13w
Salem ap (mcnary field) 1.47 in 0358 PM 12/20 44.91n/123.00w
1 S Salem (319 ft) 1.46 in 0435 PM 12/20 44.90n/123.03w
1 NW Dallas (413 ft) 1.34 in 0438 PM 12/20 44.93n/123.33w
Marion (308 ft) 1.32 in 0428 PM 12/20 44.75n/122.93w
1 WSW Salem (295 ft) 1.31 in 0439 PM 12/20 44.92n/123.06w
1 SSE Aumsville (377 ft) 1.30 in 0424 PM 12/20 44.83n/122.86w
... South Willamette Valley...
Corvallis (308 ft) 1.89 in 0345 PM 12/20 44.42n/123.33w
1 S North Albany (207 ft) 1.73 in 0437 PM 12/20 44.65n/123.12w
Monroe (401 ft) 1.61 in 0440 PM 12/20 44.32n/123.31w
2 S Philomath (308 ft) 1.60 in 0433 PM 12/20 44.50n/123.35w
2 NW Lacomb (534 ft) 1.29 in 0440 PM 12/20 44.61n/122.76w
Eugene-Mahlon Sweet Field 1.28 in 0354 PM 12/20 44.13n/123.22w
2 SW Corvallis (238 ft) 1.14 in 0431 PM 12/20 44.55n/123.29w
7 ESE crow (810 ft) 1.12 in 0438 PM 12/20 43.94n/123.22w
Santa Clara (380 ft) 1.11 in 0433 PM 12/20 44.11n/123.15w
Eugene (1200 ft) 1.02 in 0439 PM 12/20 44.05n/123.11w
... South Washington Cascade foothills...
Cougar (540 ft) 3.54 in 0434 PM 12/20 46.06n/122.29w
1 WSW Yale (462 ft) 3.27 in 0431 PM 12/20 46.00n/122.40w
Canyon Creek (2500 ft) 1.73 in 0352 PM 12/20 45.92n/122.30w
... South Washington Cascades...
Cougar 6 E (659 ft) 2.95 in 0220 PM 12/20 46.06n/122.20w
Dry Creek (2700 ft) 2.26 in 0425 PM 12/20 45.94n/121.99w
1 NW Northwoods (1100 ft) 1.62 in 0438 PM 12/20 46.07n/122.02w
Buck Creek (2690 ft) 1.37 in 0425 PM 12/20 46.06n/121.54w
Elk Rock (2500 ft) 1.36 in 0401 PM 12/20 46.31n/122.39w
... Northern Oregon Cascade foothills...
Yellowstone mtn (3080 ft) 3.16 in 0417 PM 12/20 44.59n/122.43w
Horse Creek (3402 ft) 2.08 in 0427 PM 12/20 44.95n/122.40w
pebble (3450 ft) 2.01 in 0353 PM 12/20 44.23n/122.99w
6 ENE Silver Falls (2315 ft) 1.80 in 0400 PM 12/20 44.95n/122.52w
2 NE Cherryville (1250 ft) 1.72 in 0431 PM 12/20 45.39n/122.11w
4 SSW Estacada (1079 ft) 1.00 in 0431 PM 12/20 45.23n/122.35w
... Northern Oregon Cascades...
log creek (2800 ft) 2.86 in 0406 PM 12/20 45.50n/121.90w
Jump Off Joe (3500 ft) 2.60 in 0300 PM 12/20 44.39n/122.17w
South Fork Bull Run (2630 ft 2.10 in 0300 PM 12/20 45.45n/122.03w
Boulder Creek (3570 ft) 2.05 in 0358 PM 12/20 44.72n/122.00w
Santiam Junction (3750 ft) 2.00 in 0300 PM 12/20 44.44n/121.95w
Wanderers Peak (4350 ft) 1.54 in 0407 PM 12/20 45.11n/122.20w
Red Box (3250 ft) 1.48 in 0407 PM 12/20 45.03n/121.92w
Three Lynx (1120 ft) 1.40 in 0415 PM 12/20 45.13n/122.07w
... Cascade foothills in Lane County...
Trout Creek (2319 ft) 1.87 in 0414 PM 12/20 44.11n/122.58w
Brush Creek (2130 ft) 1.48 in 0414 PM 12/20 44.28n/122.85w
2 W Walterville (595 ft) 1.13 in 0436 PM 12/20 44.07n/122.85w
2 W Walterville (574 ft) 1.03 in 0433 PM 12/20 44.07n/122.83w
2 WNW Disston (3064 ft) 0.96 in 0413 PM 12/20 43.73n/122.81w
... Cascades in Lane County...
Emigrant (3840 ft) 1.20 in 0353 PM 12/20 43.48n/122.23w
fields (3373 ft) 0.90 in 0417 PM 12/20 43.68n/122.30w
... Western Columbia River gorge...
locks (127 ft) 2.33 in 0408 PM 12/20 45.67n/121.88w
Prindle (239 ft) 1.40 in 0400 PM 12/20 45.59n/122.16w
2 SSE Rooster Rock state par 1.27 in 0431 PM 12/20 45.52n/122.22w
1 E Corbett (839 ft) 1.08 in 0438 PM 12/20 45.53n/122.27w
... Central Columbia River gorge...
Hood River (698 ft) 1.27 in 0437 PM 12/20 45.70n/121.54w
Hood River-Tucker bridge 1.20 in 0430 PM 12/20 45.65n/121.55w
3 WSW Hood River (698 ft) 1.03 in 0435 PM 12/20 45.69n/121.57w
1 WSW Hood River (465 ft) 0.93 in 0440 PM 12/20 45.70n/121.54w
1 ENE Underwood (406 ft) 0.93 in 0436 PM 12/20 45.73n/121.53w
... Upper Hood River Valley...
3 E Dee (1542 ft) 1.18 in 0434 PM 12/20 45.57n/121.55w
middle mtn (2544 ft) 1.15 in 0414 PM 12/20 45.58n/121.60w
Observations are collected from a variety of sources with varying
equipment and exposure. Not all data listed are considered official.
Personal Weather Stations [Add your weather station!]
Location: Greentree Ridge, Tillamook, OR
Updated: 7:58 PM PST
|Temperature: 57.0 °F||Dew Point: 56 °F||Humidity: 98%||Wind: SW at 9.8 mph||Pressure: 29.68 in||Hourly Precipitation: 0.04 in||Graphs|
Location: NW Meadow Lake Road, Yamhill, OR
Updated: 7:45 PM PST
|Temperature: 54.1 °F||Dew Point: 54 °F||Humidity: 99%||Wind: West at 3.7 mph||Pressure: 29.61 in||Hourly Precipitation: -||Graphs|
Location: Yamhill, OR
Updated: 7:55 PM PST
|Temperature: 55.0 °F||Dew Point: 51 °F||Humidity: 85%||Wind: SSW at 7.0 mph||Pressure: 29.64 in||Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in||Graphs|
Location: Bay City, OR
Updated: 7:55 PM PST
|Temperature: 56.3 °F||Dew Point: 56 °F||Humidity: 98%||Wind: West at 11.0 mph||Pressure: 29.70 in||Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in||Graphs|
Location: bay view-pacific coast, Garibaldi, OR
Updated: 7:50 PM PST
|Temperature: 56.6 °F||Dew Point: 55 °F||Humidity: 93%||Wind: North at 17.0 mph||Pressure: 29.70 in||Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in||Graphs|
Location: Central Rockaway, Rockaway Beach, OR
Updated: 7:57 PM PST
|Temperature: 54.7 °F||Dew Point: 46 °F||Humidity: 71%||Wind: Calm||Pressure: 29.71 in||Hourly Precipitation: 0.01 in||Graphs|
Location: North Highway 101, Rockaway Beach, OR
Updated: 7:57 PM PST
|Temperature: 55.8 °F||Dew Point: 56 °F||Humidity: 100%||Wind: North at -||Pressure: 30.05 in||Hourly Precipitation: -||Graphs|
MSN Maps of:
|Temp:||Dew Point:||Humidity||Wind||Pressure||Hr Precip||-|
Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Portland or 306 PM PST Sat Dec 20 2014 Synopsis...mild and very wet weather is expected to continue over southwest Washington and northwest Oregon through Sunday as a strong westerly flow transports an atmospheric river or plume of anomalously high moisture into the area. The heaviest rain will be over the higher terrain. The heavy rain should ease late Sunday into Monday. There is the strong potential for river flooding from tonight into early next week. Longer range model output is suggesting a colder air mass will settle over the Pacific northwest late next week with snow down into at least the Cascade foothills and Coast Range. && Short term...tonight through Tuesday...widespread heavy rain has fallen across SW Washington and northwest Oregon today as a frontal system with a connection to a long fetch sub-tropical moisture source has begun to move onshore. AMSU derived satellite imagery is showing a plume of precipitable water values the highest precipitation totals so far have been in the Oregon Coast Range where most sites have seen between two and four inches of rain since last night. The coast...Willapa Hills...and Cascades have seen around one to two inches...while the interior lowlands have seen one half to one inch so far. A warm frontal feature approached the coast this morning and has slowly moved onshore this afternoon. There have been some gusty southwesterly winds along the coast out ahead of the warm front...with a few coastal locations having recorded gusts of 45 to 55 miles per hour. The winds have begun to subside over the Oregon coast over the past couple of hours as the warm front pushes inland...and they are just now peaking along the S Washington coast. Winds will still remain fairly gusty out of the west/southwest through tonight as we sit in the warm sector of the frontal system. In addition to precipitation concerns...there have also been some dangerous surf conditions along the beaches today. While the overall seas continue to decrease slightly...will maintain the high surf advisory at this time and allow it to expire at 7 PM. The potential remains for large waves to create hazardous conditions in the surf zone with large waves with the ability to crash quickly on beaches and over jetties. Beachgoers and storm watchers should remain alert and exercise extreme caution near the coast through this evening. At this point...there will be very little change in the overall synoptic pattern through tonight into Sun morning. Behind the warm frontal passage...we will sit in warm sector of the system. Strong west/SW flow at low and middle levels will drive significant orographic lift along the Coast Range and Cascades. With the enhanced subtropical moisture also remaining in place...we will see a prolonged period of heavy rain in the higher terrain. Since we are losing a lot of the forcing associated with isentropic lift along the warm front...the main forcing for precipitation will now be the orographic lift. Thus...precipitation will be significantly less for the lower elevations going forward. This is particularly true for the western side of the Willamette Valley...where there will likely be significant rain shadowing. As we get into later Sunday...the cold front that is currently sitting well to our north off the British Columbia and northern Washington coast will slowly begin to work it/S way southward into our County Warning Area. Behind the cold front...the strong orographic flow will weaken and precipitation taper off considerably. The current forecast model timing has the precipitation over S Washington tapering off Sun afternoon...and the north Oregon Cascades and Coast Range dropping off sun evening. The heavier precipitation becomes increasingly confined to the central or Cascades and Coast Range tomorrow. Eventually the cold fronts all the way through the forecast area Sun night into early Monday morning. Snow levels will fall behind the cold front...which may allow for a few inches of snowfall accumulation down to near the Cascade passes late Sunday or early Monday before the precipitation completely ends. Conditions look drier for Monday as upper level ridging builds over the Pacific northwest. The 12z European model (ecmwf) is indicating that the baroclinic zone to our south may try to lift northward again as a warm front on Monday...so did not completely remove probability of precipitation. But the NAM and GFS are completely dry...so stayed with low chance probability of precipitation for now. Mainly dry conditions will likely continue on for much of Tuesday. However...forecast confidence is a little better that we will see some light rain on Tuesday night or Wednesday as a weak frontal system to the north moves through the weakening upper level ridge. Pyle && Long term...Tuesday night through Saturday...models remain consistent in flattening an upper level ridge late Tuesday into Wednesday. There are some model discrepancies concerning how far south the next shortwave will move into the Pacific northwest...but overall an upper level trough will sag south and move inland early Wednesday. This will usher in another batch of cool and rainy conditions...with snow levels dropping to near 2000 feet so expect snow showers over Cascade passes right in time for Holiday travel. Again...Holiday travelers headed over the Cascade passes will certainly need to monitor the forecast. Lingering moisture continues into Christmas day...but will likely be occasional showers with partly cloudy skies for the most part. Colder northerly flow persists into early next weekend...with drier conditions expected for Friday. A new development in the 12z model runs has been another shortwave disturbance dropping south over the forecast area late Friday...bringing a threat for rain and snow on the mountains. /27 Monday night through Friday...an upper level ridge will amplify over the region late Monday into Tuesday. Extended models agree on a weak shortwave attempting to flatten the ridge Tuesday morning as an upper level trough begins to deepen in the Gulf of Alaska. Cloudy and rainy conditions will linger into the middle of next week as this dirty ridge remains over the area. The next more significant system arrives late Wednesday afternoon as the upper level trough axis becomes more negatively tilted and starts to shift inland. This Marks the next best shot for the Cascades to finally see some snow accumulations...as snow levels drop to 2000 to 2500 feet through Christmas day. Holiday travelers headed over the Cascade passes will certainly need to monitor the forecast. Colder north flow will follow and allow temperatures to cool well below normal as conditions dry out next Friday. /27 && Hydrology...a west to east oriented band of moisture originating from the tropics...continues to take aim at northwest Oregon and southwestern Washington. Orographic enhancement resulted in heavy rain at times along the coast this morning. Precipitation totals have matched forecasted values reasonably well to this point. As a result...opted to issue flood warnings for seven coastal rivers including the Grays...Nehalem at Foss...the Wilson...Trask...Siletz...Alsea and Siuslaw as most...if not all of these rivers should reach flood stage later tonight or on Sunday based on observed and forecasted rainfall. One general region that has exceeded expectations is in the central/north Oregon Coast Range where 3 to 4.5 inches of rain have fallen so far...rather than the expected 2 to 3 inches to this point. Because this region has exceeded expectations...and rainfall rates have hovered in the quarter to half inch per hour...several of these rivers...particularly the Wilson and Siletz rivers...may reach flood stage several hours sooner than the current flood warnings indicate. Will reevaluate this portion of the river forecast this afternoon. Will more than likely be issuing additional flood warnings later this afternoon and/or evening as confidence grows that additional rivers in the area will reach flood stage. At this point...nearly 20 rivers stand a decent shot of reaching flood stage. Depending on where the heaviest rain axis sets up...a couple certainly stand a chance of reaching major flood stage...but confidence is still not terribly high where this will be. Current models and forecasts suggest the Clackamas river near Estacada and the Marys River near Philomath stand the best chance...but these are certainly subject to change...and no flood warnings have been issued for these rivers as of Saturday middle afternoon. Would not be suprised if one or Two Rivers along the coast reach major flood stage...but which one or two remains uncertain. Based on trends today...the Wilson and Siletz have our attention. Please monitor water.Weather.Gov/ahps2/index.Php?Wfo=pqr for the latest river observations and forecast information. In addition to river flooding concerns...we have also been dealing with some flooding issues from tidal overflow. Despite lower flows on coastal rivers this morning...some minortidal overflow was observed along the coast. The high tide during late morning on Sunday will be of about the same magnitude...and with much higher flows expected due to the abundant rainfall over the coastal river basins...confidence is fairly high that at least some minor tidal overflow impacts will be observed on Sunday with total tides pushing near 11 feet with coastal rivers approaching or exceeding bankfull. Low lying areas near Willapa Bay...Tillamook Bay...Depoe Bay...Waldport...and Florence...along with stretches of Highway 101 along the coast...may experience minor tidal overflow during the high tide around 11 am Sunday. Peak impacts are likely between about 9 am and 3 PM. With rivers continuing to run at or near flood stage...the midday high tide on Monday may again cause some minor issues. There have already been several reports of rocks and mudslides impacting travel along the Oregon and Washington coasts...Coast Range and in the Columbia River gorge. Expect additional incidents through the weekend in areas of steeper terrain. Burn scars from the 36 pit fire in the Clackamas river basin near Estacada and the deception complex near Oakridge...will be particularly vulnerable. /Neuman && Aviation...generally lower MVFR conditions across the interior this afternoon with ceilings steady around 1500 feet and visible remaining in the 3-5 sm range. Meanwhile...the coastal areas report mostly IFR ceilings and visibilities. Expect little change through this evening as frontal band will slide south into the region and rain continues. Gusty S winds to 35 knots can be expect for the coastal areas...in addition to some portions of the interior including ksle. Some local pockets of lower flight conditions...IFR for the interior and LIFR for the coast...may develop through tonight. Expect winds to become more west by around 12z sun as surface front moves across region. Kpdx and approaches...lower MVFR ceilings prevail this evening...around 1500 feet. May see some occasional lowering to near 1000 feet along with some restriction in visible...into the 3-4 sm range with continuing rain. Light rain and MVFR flight conditions likely continue through the taf period. S winds will become more SW or west-southwest after 14z sun as frontal boundary moves through. Cullen && Marine...winds have eased a little from their peak earlier today...but gusts remain around 35 knots this afternoon. Additionally short term models suggest another burst of stronger gusts are possible through this evening. Therefore...will continue the Gale Warning at this time. Winds will ease gradually this evening...with winds decreasing to Small Craft Advisory range over all waters by midnight. Winds continue to ease through day sun...with winds generally 15 knots or less and becoming more west and then northwest. Winds may increase again around midweek into Small Craft Advisory range as a frontal system approaches. Seas remain around 18 to 20 feet range through this evening...before subsiding to near 15 feet Sunday morning. However...seas likely remain in the low to middle teens through at least the first half of the week and possibly until Friday. Cullen && Pqr watches/warnings/advisories... or...Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for Cascade foothills in Lane County-Cascades in Lane County-central Coast Range of western Oregon-central Columbia River gorge-central Oregon coast-central Willamette Valley-Coast Range of northwest Oregon-greater Portland metropolitan area-lower Columbia-north Oregon coast-northern Oregon Cascade foothills-northern Oregon Cascades-south Willamette Valley-Upper Hood River Valley-western Columbia River gorge. High surf advisory until 7 PM PST this evening for central Oregon coast-north Oregon coast. Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 am to 3 PM PST Sunday for central Oregon coast-north Oregon coast. Washington...Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for central Columbia River gorge-Greater Vancouver area-I-5 corridor in Cowlitz County- South Washington Cascade foothills-South Washington Cascades-South Washington coast-western Columbia River gorge-Willapa Hills. High surf advisory until 7 PM PST this evening for South Washington coast. Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 am to 3 PM PST Sunday for South Washington coast. Pz...Gale Warning until midnight PST tonight for coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater Washington to Florence or out 60 nm. Small Craft Advisory for rough Columbia River bar until 6 PM PST Sunday. && $$ Interact with US via social media www.Facebook.Com/nwsportland www.Twitter.Com/nwsportland This discussion is for northwest Oregon and southwest Washington from the Cascade crest to 60 nautical miles offshore. The area is commonly referred to as the forecast area.