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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Saturday
• 
• High: 64 °
• Low: 50 °
• Rain

• Sunday
• 
• High: 63 °
• Low: 41 °
• Rain Showers

• Monday
• 
• High: 59 °
• Low: 48 °
• Chance of Rain

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 64 °
• Low: 45 °
• Chance of Rain

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 61 °
• Low: 39 °
• Chance of Rain

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Portland or 
843 PM PDT Friday may 24 2013 


Synopsis...a piece of the low that brought copious rain to southwest 
Washington and northwest Oregon will remain centered along the 
Washington coast tonight and Saturday morning then move off to the 
northeast. This will be followed by another low dropping in from the 
northwest and off the Pacific later Saturday and Saturday night for 
more precipitation. This low will linger in the area Sunday before 
moving east Sunday night. The next decent front appears that it will 
move into southwest Washington and northwest Oregon on Memorial Day 
Monday. A mostly westerly flow will keep things unsettled with some 
precipitation at times next week. 
&& 


Short term...did get some decent showers across the northern part of 
our forecast area this afternoon and evening. Model data showed 
instability up through 700 mb but it was capped at 600 and 500 mb... 
thus the showers were still vigorous but not deep enough to produce 
charge separation and any lightning. Showers are mostly moving into 
the Cascades and decreasing this evening...and should continue to 
decrease overnight. 


Next up is a low or circulation center that is centered around 
48n/133w and heading southeast toward southwest Washington and 
northwest Oregon. Should see some increase in precipitation through 
the day Saturday from the west...with a peak Saturday night as this 
low moves onshore. The low is still overhead or nearby much of 
Sunday...so we should see a decent amount of showers. The air aloft 
may get cool enough we might trigger a thunderstorm or two Sunday 
afternoon. 


Showers should decrease Sunday night as this low moves off to the 
east. The next more progressive and organized Pacific cold front is 
expected to move in on Memorial Day Monday for increasing rain. Snow 
levels will be 7000 to 8000 feet with this front. Tolleson 


Long term...no changes. Previous discussion follows... 
models start out in good agreement during the extended period Monday 
night and Tuesday...with a trough pushing inland over the West Coast. 
Most of the energy appears headed S of the forecast area towards California. 
As the northern stream appears to remain an open wave...will boost 
probability of precipitation into likely category. Models diverge some later in the week... 
but keep a common theme of shortwaves pushing in in a westerly flow 
aloft. Will keep probability of precipitation relatively high for a system on Wednesday...but then 
will drop probability of precipitation off later in the week as upper heights rise. 
&& 


Aviation...a weak trough will continue over the area tonight with a 
few showers continuing. Saturday morning a weak but fairly moist 
system will near the coast. Current models indicating main focus of 
the precipitation is to the south portion of the forecast area. For the coast... 
mainly VFR to start but MVFR becoming likely. An organized band of 
showers extend off the coast from around Newport giving IFR 
conditions there. Conditions may improve 05z to 07z from IFR to MVFR 
as the band shifts north. Inland areas...few showers around though 
VFR conditions prevailing this evening. Conditions becoming more 
stable overnight per model soundings trapping lower level moisture 
for increasing chances of MVFR ceilings developing after 12z. But by 18z 
or so conditions generally VFR but tending to MVFR late Sat afternoon 
or evening as the next front approaches. 


Kpdx and approaches...VFR with a few showers expected through the 
night. Statistical guidance and model soundings split on MVFR in the 
area Sat morning so will not include MVFR at this time. 
&& 


Marine...seas will remain around 6 feet through sun. Another weak 
system pushes into the waters early on Saturday...providing breezy 
winds by Saturday afternoon but winds are expected to remain below 20 
knots. A more organized system is expected on Monday which could produce 
a brief coastal jet for gusts 30 to 35 knots...but this depends on the 
track. There is still some possibility this system could focus more 
on southern Oregon and northern California than our waters. 


Morning ebbs remain very strong due to the full moon...so expect 
rough Columbia River bar conditions the next couple mornings. 
Burgess/weagle 
&& 


Pqr watches/warnings/advisories... 
or...none. 
Washington...none. 
Pz...Small Craft Advisory for rough Columbia River bar from 
4 am to 8 am PDT Saturday. 


&& 


$$ 


More weather information online at... 
http://weather.Gov/Portland 


This discussion is for northwest Oregon and southwest Washington from 
the Cascade crest to 60 nautical miles offshore. The area is commonly 
referred to as the forecast area.