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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Thursday
• 
• High: 58 °
• Low: 41 °
• Chance of Rain

• Friday
• 
• High: 52 °
• Low: 38 °
• Rain

• Saturday
• 
• High: 50 °
• Low: 38 °
• Chance of Rain

• Sunday
• 
• High: 50 °
• Low: 38 °
• Rain

• Monday
• 
• High: 50 °
• Low: 38 °
• Chance of Rain

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Portland or 
225 PM PST Thursday Feb 9 2012 


Synopsis...a weak surface low pressure system will approach the 
Oregon coast from the SW tonight...then lift north off the Washington coast Friday. 
A poorly defined upper level low will move across the Pacific northwest Friday 
night and Sat...followed by a more organized system late sun into 
Monday. 
&& 


Short term...satellite shows skies still mostly cloudy early this 
afternoon over the forecast area...with most of the rainfall pushed 
up into western Washington. Offshore flow has brought windy conditions to 
the west end of The Gorge again. Next low pressure system is coming up out 
of the SW...with a well defined vorticity maximum seen in water vapor 
pictures near 37n 135w. Models have come into decent agreement in 
lifting the shortwave across the area late tonight and early 
Friday...with the surface low expected to track north off the coast while 
weakening. Moisture with this system is modest...mainly in the middle 
levels. Will bring chance for rain into the entire area by later 
tonight with best chances along the Oregon coast...then shift best 
probability of precipitation north with the shortwave Friday morning. The overall upper air pattern 
becomes rather complicated by Friday night and Sat as the initial low 
stalls and weakens...and more shortwave energy rotates through. With 
the diffuse upper low lingering and a nondescript low level 
pattern...some low and middle level moisture remains and as such will 
hang onto some low probability of precipitation into Sat night. Models in general agreement 
in next system coming in from the Pacific late sun...so will back 
off on probability of precipitation sun. 


Long term...extended models tend to agree on at least the early 
half of the long term forecast. A shortwave off the coast sun 
evening will dive south of the forecast area Sun night and into 
Monday...bringing likely showers and lowering snow levels Monday. 
Showers will likely fall as snow in the Cascades and in parts of the 
Coast Range and Cascade foothills. However...advisory level snows 
are not expected at this time. A weak ridge builds in for Tuesday 
providing a brief break in precipitation. Models do disagree on the 
strength of the next system expected to move through the area late 
Wednesday into Thursday...then continue to disagree on the outcome to end the 
week. All in all...the weather pattern stays active though at this 
point none of the individual system looks to be particularly strong. 
Brown 


&& 


Aviation...a warm front lifted north of the area earlier today with 
mostly VFR conditions around the region this afternoon. The 
exception is an area stretching from ua0-cvo in the central 
Willamette Valley where IFR-MVFR ceilings will persist through 00z. 
Expect flight conditions to lower to MVFR Friday morning as a cold 
front begins to move into the region. 




Kpdx and approaches...VFR conditions through tonight. MVFR 
conditions expected Friday morning as a cold front moves into the 
region. 


&& 


Marine...southerly winds around 20-25 kts this afternoon/evening 
as low pressure approaches the waters. The winds will intensify a tad 
late tonight through Friday morning as the low moves across the 
waters with gusts around 30 kts. A few occasional gusts near 35 
knots is possible. This low will produce a 12 to 16 feet westerly swell 
through Friday. 


&& 


Pqr watches/warnings/advisories... 
or...none. 
Washington...none. 
Pz...Small Craft Advisory for winds until 10 am PST Friday for 
waters from Cape Shoalwater Washington to Florence or from 10 to 60 nm. 


Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 4 PM PST Sat for 
coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater Washington to Florence or out 60 nm. 


Small Craft Advisory for winds until noon PST Friday for coastal 
waters from Cape Shoalwater Washington to Cascade Head or out 10 nm. 


Small Craft Advisory for rough Columbia River bar until 4 PM 
PST Saturday. 
&& 


$$ 


More weather information online at... 
http://weather.Gov/Portland 


This discussion is for northwest Oregon and southwest Washington from 
the Cascade crest to 60 nautical miles offshore. The area is commonly 
referred to as the forecast area.