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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 82 °
• Low: 48 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Thursday
• 
• High: 75 °
• Low: 41 °
• Clear

• Friday
• 
• High: 70 °
• Low: 39 °
• Clear

• Saturday
• 
• High: 70 °
• Low: 45 °
• Clear

• Sunday
• 
• High: 73 °
• Low: 52 °
• Partly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Spokane Washington 
432 am PDT Wed may 16 2012 


Synopsis... 
a gradual cool down and breezy winds are expected today as high 
pressure weakens and a series of weather disturbances moves 
through the region for the remainder of the week. By Thursday and 
Friday, there is a threat of showers and thunderstorms to mainly 
north Idaho. High pressure and a warm-up is returning for the 
weekend, though this will be short-lived as cloudy conditions 
return Monday. This will be followed by a much wetter cold front 
for Tuesday and Wednesday. This early work week pattern also 
favors gusty west winds and much cooler temperatures closer to 
seasonable normals. 


&& 


Discussion... 


Today through thursday: the Pacific northwest will remain 
in between two systems for the next 24 hours. One closed low is in 
northern BC, while the other is in southern Nevada. For today 
temperatures will average 8 to 12 degrees cooler than yesterday, 
but still be above average for this time of the year. Mid and high 
level thin clouds will transverse from the west through the day. 
Winds will increase during the late morning and early afternoon 
hours and become breezy in the afternoon and early evening as a 
surface pressure gradient sets up between high pressure in the 
eastern Pacific and low pressure on the east side of The Divide. 
Tonight we remain dry with temperatures around average for this 
time of the year. Winds will decrease in the evening and overnight 
hours. The only exciting 'weather' Worth discussing is Thursday 
the models are all showing a wave moving down from the backside of 
the low in Canada along the British Columbia coast and approaching Washington by 
late Thursday afternoon. The GFS appears to be the strongest with 
this wave. Both the NAM and European model (ecmwf) have started to trend toward the 
GFS in strength and placement. Even though this appears to be a 
decently strong wave, there is no good moisture tap associated 
with it. All the moisture appears to be confined between 6500 and 
10000 ft with lots of dry air at the surface to overcome from the last 
few warm days. There is some marginal instability across the 
northern Idaho Panhandle Thursday afternoon. So, kept the best chance 
of showers across extreme northeast Washington and the Idaho Panhandle, with 
a slight chance of thunder for the northern Idaho Panhandle possible. 
Daytime temperatures will continue their downward trend, but be 
about average for this time of the year. /Nisbet 


Thurs nt through tues: model guidance is continuing with the trend of 
driving a cold front through the region a bit quicker for thurs nt, 
putting all of ern WA and some of north ID under the Post frontal dry 
slot that wedges its way across the Cascades and into the Columbia 
Basin. This will put a large part of the region under clearing 
skies between the cold front to the east and the cooler and much 
more unstable showery regime in srn British Columbia. As the upper trof axis 
translates east, this unstable region accompanying the vort Max 
will clip north/NE WA and the north ID Panhandle thurs nt and Fri. The 
conditionally unstable steep mid-level lapse rates accompanying 
this vort Max should produce mainly afternoon mtn showers Fri for 
NE WA and the north ID Panhandle. Isolated thunder is possible based 
on the latest soundings showing a marginally favorable environment 
based on cape layer depth and level of free convection to el temps. For the Sat to Tue 
time frame, the various model guidance shows inconsistencies (not 
surprising 5-6 days out) concerning the timing of a potentially 
wet and much cooler wx regime Mon into late tues. However, the GFS 
and European model (ecmwf) are more in line with pcpn amnts with the heaviest pcpn 
over north ID tues compared to their big differences in the previous 
few runs. Because of this, we raised pcpn chances some Mon and 
tues and cooled afternoon high temps as well. Bz 


&& 


Aviation... 
12z tafs: occasional high clouds will move through the area 
through 04z Thursday. Wind/wind gusts will also increase btwn 
18-21z as low level instability increases...with gusty winds 
decreasing near 03z Thursday as the lower atmosphere begins 
to stabilize with the setting sun. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Spokane 76 46 67 41 64 39 / 0 0 0 10 10 0 
Coeur D'Alene 75 45 67 40 63 36 / 0 0 0 10 10 0 
Pullman 72 43 64 39 61 34 / 0 0 0 10 0 0 
Lewiston 80 49 70 44 67 41 / 0 0 10 10 0 0 
Colville 82 45 73 42 70 37 / 0 10 10 20 20 10 
Sandpoint 74 43 66 38 61 33 / 0 0 10 20 30 20 
Kellogg 72 44 63 39 59 36 / 0 0 10 20 20 10 
Moses Lake 80 47 74 42 72 40 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 
Wenatchee 77 48 71 44 70 44 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 
Omak 79 46 71 40 70 38 / 0 0 0 10 10 0 


&& 


Otx watches/warnings/advisories... 
Idaho...none. 
Washington...none. 
&& 


$$