292 
fxus66 kmfr 050433 
afdmfr 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Medford or 
840 PM PST Wednesday Nov 4 2009 


Discussion...an active weather pattern is underway for the 
northwest as a deep upper trough centered along 135w approaches the 
coast. Most of the energy with the trough as it moves inland late 
tonight through Thursday will split north and south of our region... 
and thus have cut back some probability of precipitation and quantitative precipitation forecast amounts Thursday...mainly 
from the Rogue Valley south and east. 


The main punch with this storm will be winds. A coastal High Wind 
Warning has been issued. A Wind Advisory has been issued for the 
Shasta Valley and east side as gusty south to southwest winds are 
expected to develop Thursday and continue into Thursday night as 
the cold front approaches. The front makes it through the east 
side by Friday afternoon but will linger over the southern edge of 
the warning area. 


Most locations will get measurable rain with this storm...heaviest 
over the west side terrain...with snow levels likely remaining above 
the passes. Then...Post frontal onshore flow will provide showers 
lingering through Saturday as another cold front arrives in the 
westerly flow aloft. Snow levels will dip a little lower here and 
some concern exists for a few inches on the Cascade passes. 


For Sunday through Monday...we'll likely see a period of dry 
weather...but not definitely. The latest GFS indicates ridging and 
dry weather but we've gone with a little wetter idea (meaning we're 
continuing with some rain chances over the west) as the ensemble 
mean and ec continue to indicate a fair chance of some rain each 
day...with showers lingering early Sunday and some uncertainty in 
the timing of another front coming later Monday. The front is most 
likely to come in Monday night with another upper trough digging 
over the northwest into Wednesday. 


&& 


Aviation..there is patchy IFR in low clouds or fog just inland 
of the coast which may increase in coverage darning the night 
then lift toward morning as the cold front and stronger winds 
draw closer. Further inland...VFR weather should prevail through 
late tonight. Late morning through afternoon and evening Thursday 
brings obscuring terrain and widespread MVFR with rain spreading 
west to east across the region with the advance of the cold front. 


&& 


Mfr watches/warnings/advisories... 
or...High Wind Warning from 10 am to 10 PM PST Thursday for orz021- 
orz022. 
Wind Advisory from 1 PM to 10 PM PST Thursday for orz031. 


California...Wind Advisory from 1 PM to 10 PM PST Thursday for caz081-caz085. 


Pacific coastal waters...Small Craft Advisory for winds until 8 am 
PST Thursday for pzz350-pzz356. 
Hazardous seas warning from 4 am Thursday to 8 am PST Sunday 
for pzz350-pzz356. 
Gale Warning from 8 am to 10 PM PST Thursday for pzz350-pzz356. 
Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 4 am PST Thursday 
for pzz350-pzz356. 
Small Craft Advisory for winds until 1 am PST Thursday for 
pzz370-pzz376. 
Hazardous seas warning from 1 am Thursday to 8 am PST Sunday 
for pzz370-pzz376. 
Gale Warning from 1 am to 10 PM PST Thursday for pzz370-pzz376. 
Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 1 am PST Thursday 
for pzz370-pzz376. 


$$ 


09/14/14/11