632 
fxus66 kmfr 071008 
afdmfr 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Medford or 
200 am PST Sat Nov 7 2009 


Discussion...a strong 500mb low in the Gulf of Alaska will maintain 
a moist cyclonic flow over the region through Saturday night...then 
weakens Sunday. The latest infrared satellite loop shows a short wave 
moving onshore at this time and this has increased showers mainly 
over northwest Oregon. A second short wave is forecast to move 
onshore this afternoon and evening producing another round of 
showers. Like previous short waves moving onshore...the best forcing 
will be over northwest Oregon. On Sunday the moist cyclonic flow 
weakens...so expect less shower activity around our region. 


For Monday...the GFS and European model (ecmwf) are similar bringing another front to 
the coast Monday afternoon...then weakens it Monday night as it 
moves onshore. Both the models also agree that the gradients will 
not be as strong as the previous system...so not expecting high 
winds along the coast. 


For the extended period Tuesday through Friday...an upper trough 
located off the Pacific northwest coast Tuesday will gradually shift 
southeast and inland over the region later Wednesday and Thursday. 
On Friday another system approaches the coast increasing the threat 
of rain again. 


&& 


Aviation...generally VFR ceilings with scattered showers through 
this evening. Local areas of MVFR expected to develop along the 
coast and inland vicinity of Roseburg this afternoon and evening 
with increasing showers. 


&& 


Mfr watches/warnings/advisories... 
or...high surf warning until 4 PM PST Sunday for orz021-orz022. 


California...none. 


Pacific coastal waters...hazardous seas warning until 4 PM PST 
Sunday for pzz350-pzz356-pzz370-pzz376. 
Small Craft Advisory for winds until 10 PM PST this evening for 
pzz350. 
Small Craft Advisory for winds until 4 am PST Sunday for pzz370. 


$$ 


Relative humidity/snow